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Conservative Love Island

New Statesman - 25.07.05

Before the savage events of July 7th politicos mused on familiar themes; In Labour’s case the question was when will Brown succeed Blair. For the Tories it was who will succeed Howard. Over the last decade the spectacle of Tory versus Tory has become one of Westminster’s most reliable entertainments with all ritual humiliation of television reality shows like Big Brother.

Now into its fifth series since 1995 Conservative Challenge 5, or CC5, has borrowed from this summer's other hits. Michael Howard is Alan Sugar, standing back to watch as many as ten apprentices try to outwit each other to his job. And with all the contestants keen to stress their common purpose and mutual respect it’s almost Conservative Love Island. There's that nice Damien Green pairing off with dangerous David Davis and loveable Oliver Letwin pledging his heart to the dashing David Cameron leaving Theresa May, Liam Fox, Ken Clarke et al the summer to ratchet up their conservative canoodling. And they’ll have to, because the Davids, Davis and Cameron, and let's not forget wild card Willets, were certainly making all the running before debate naturally wound down in respect of London’s grief.

As normality gradually reasserts itself questions are asked about recent events may have changed the political landscape. In view of the Prime Minister’s enhanced statesmanship might his tenure be extended? Good news for the country perhaps but bad for the Conservatives most of whom would like Black hole Brown to take over as soon as possible. But it’s by no means clear that either option materially changes the fortunes of the front runner Davids. Against both Blair or Brown Cameron or Davis have different advantages. Is it best to counter a newly strengthened Blair with a younger man who could out-Blair him or an abrasive parliamentarian who could out-wit him? And what about a Prime Minister Brown? To contrast him with a media charmer could score well for the Tories, but then again perhaps a heavyweight calls for the opposition of a more experienced man like Davis, whose recent responses to Charles Clarke have been skilful and well judged.

Tories will now have the summer to consider. Although jaded by leadership contests they should be encouraged by positive differences this time round. CC5 is the most important since John Major succeeded Margaret Thatcher, not least because for first time since then the Lady's influence or endorsement matters not one jot. Thus far the vitriol of previous contests has been kept to a minimum. The worst mud slinging so far comes from the anti-Davis forces that brand their nemesis "IDS with charisma". It's not meant as a compliment despite the party's former leader doing well to make social justice a theme that now, rightly, provides common cause to all the wannabe leaders.

It’s taken three election defeats, but this fall out period is markedly more thoughtful than previous. Sure 2001 saw calls for change, but the arguments polarised between ‘sexy’ modernisers and complacent 'one more heavers'. This time round the reflection is more thorough but despite all of the uncharacteristic self examination none of the candidates are really exciting much enthusiasm. There's more at stake this time round with the real possibility that the next leader could be the next Conservative prime minister, but also a sober acceptance that there's no one outstanding leader in waiting.

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